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Dewpoint Temperature Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks

机译:基于人工神经网络的露点温度预测

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Dewpoint temperature, the temperature at which water vapor in the air will condense into liquid, can be useful in estimating frost, fog, snow, dew, evapotranspiration, and other meteorological variables. The goal of this study was to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict dewpoint temperature from 1 to 12 h ahead using prior weather data as inputs. This study explores using three-layer backpropagation ANNs and weather data combined for three years from 20 locations in Georgia, United States, to develop general models for dewpoint temperature prediction anywhere within Georgia. Specific objectives included the selection of the important weather-related inputs, the setting of ANN parameters, and the selection of the duration of prior input data. An iterative search found that, in addition to dewpoint temperature, important weather-related ANN inputs included relative humidity, solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed, and vapor pressure. Experiments also showed that the best models included 60 nodes in the ANN hidden layer, a ±0.15 initial range for the ANN weights, a 0.35 ANN learning rate, and a duration of prior weather-related data used as inputs ranging from 6 to 30 h based on the lead time. The evaluation of the final models with weather data from 20 separate locations and for a different year showed that the 1-, 4-, 8-, and 12-h predictions had mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0.550°, 1.234°, 1.799°, and 2.280°C, respectively. These final models predicted dewpoint temperature adequately using previously unseen weather data, including difficult freeze and heat stress extremes. These predictions are useful for decisions in agriculture because dewpoint temperature along with air temperature affects the intensity of freezes and heat waves, which can damage crops, equipment, and structures and can cause injury or death to animals and humans.
机译:露点温度是空气中水蒸气凝结成液体的温度,可用于估算霜,雾,雪,露水,蒸散量和其他气象变量。这项研究的目的是使用人工神经网络(ANN),以先前的气象数据为输入,预测1至12小时之前的露点温度。这项研究探索了使用三层反向传播ANN和来自美国佐治亚州20个地点的三年的气象数据相结合的方法,以开发佐治亚州内任何地方露点温度预测的通用模型。具体目标包括选择与天气有关的重要输入,设置ANN参数以及选择先前输入数据的持续时间。迭代搜索发现,除露点温度外,与天气相关的重要人工神经网络输入还包括相对湿度,太阳辐射,气温,风速和蒸气压。实验还表明,最佳模型包括ANN隐藏层中的60个节点,ANN权重的初始范围为±0.15,ANN学习速率为0.35,以及先前与天气相关的数据的持续时间(输入范围为6到30小时)根据提前期。根据来自20个不同地点的不同年份的天气数据对最终模型进行评估,结果表明1、4、8和12小时的预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.550°,1.234°,1.799 °和2.280°C。这些最终模型使用以前看不见的天气数据(包括困难的冻结和极端热极端情况)充分预测了露点温度。这些预测对于农业决策很有用,因为露点温度以及气温会影响冻结和热浪的强度,这会损坏农作物,设备和结构,并可能导致动物和人类受伤或死亡。

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