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Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainstorm-Induced Hazards Modified by Urbanization in Beijing

机译:北京城市化对暴雨致灾的时空特征

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The rainfall data of 20 rain gauge stations are used for analysis on the spatiotemporal characteristics of rainstorm-induced hazards in Beijing. A local model used to calculate rainstorm hazards index values (RHIVs) has been developed to reflect the degree of rainstorm-induced hazards. The Mann-Kendall test on the RHIVs series recognizes 1984 as the changepoint in the series, which is shortly after the beginning of a rapid urban expansion period in 1981. The RHIV trend analysis reveals that the trends indices of all stations are negative before 1984 but mostly positive after 1984. Although the climate in north China shows drought conditions, and the annual rainfalls have decreased in recent years, no relationship is implied to a reduction in rainstorm-induced hazards. By using the lognormal distribution model, the probability analysis on the RHIVs of 20 stations indicates that very extreme precipitation occurred in increasing frequency after 1984. Moreover, the estimated spatial distributions of 100-, 150-, and 200-mm daily rainfall exceedance probabilities (EPs) indicate that these EPs have increased mainly in the urban areas and northward, which are the downwind of the summer monsoon, whereas the EPs to the south of the urban areas have decreased since 1984. Such spatiotemporal characteristics of the RHIVs can be attributed to modification of precipitation by the changed land use and land cover in urban areas. Moreover, the urban-induced rainfall downwind of the urban areas enhanced the rain intensity and rain rate, which led to an increase in RHIVs and contributed to the frequent occurrences of flash floods in Beijing metropolis.
机译:利用20个雨量计站的降水资料,对北京暴雨灾害的时空特征进行了分析。已经开发了用于计算暴雨危害指数值(RHIV)的本地模型,以反映暴雨引起的危害程度。对RHIVs系列进行的Mann-Kendall检验将1984年视为该系列的转折点,这是在1981年快速城市扩展期开始后不久。RHV趋势分析显示,1984年之前所有站点的趋势指数均为负,但多数在1984年以后为正。尽管华北的气候显示干旱条件,并且近年来年降水量减少,但与减少暴雨引起的危害没有任何关系。通过使用对数正态分布模型,对20个测站的RHIV进行概率分析,表明1984年以后,极端极端降水以增加的频率发生。此外,估计的每日降雨超标概率100、150和200 mm的空间分布( EPs)表明,这些EPs主要在城市地区和北部增加,这是夏季风的下风,而从1984年以来,城市南部的EPs有所减少。RHIVs的这种时空特征可以归因于通过改变城市地区的土地利用和土地覆盖来改变降水。此外,城市诱发的降雨顺风增加了降雨强度和降雨率,导致RHIVs增加,并导致北京大都市频繁发生山洪暴发。

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