Dynamic modeling of urban areas for supporting integrated coastal zone management in the South Coast of Sao Miguel Island, Azores (Portugal)

摘要

Coastal areas are complex systems subject to significant erosion processes resulting from both physical and anthropogenic factors. This context introduces the importance of quantifying the impacts resulting from land artificialization increase, the assessment of coastal erosion and the development of strategies for achieving an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). In this study we employed the Land Transformation Model (LTM) to forecast urban growth to year 2014 in the South Coast of Sao Miguel Island, Azores (Portugal). Two different scenarios for modeling urban growth were tested: (1) one that considered an urban sprawl trend equivalent to the one measured between years 1998 and 2005, and (2) another that considered the restrictions included in the intervention area of South Coast Management Plan (POOC Costa Sul). The objective was to evaluate the impact of the POOC Costa Sul in the urban growth of the studied area. Results show that the POOC Costa Sul is not effective in containing urban growth quantities which are equivalent to the non-restricted scenario. However, it was possible to observe that it is effective in deciding where the urban expansion is likely to happen, preventing, for instances, the occurrence of urban growth near water lines or in the maritime public domain. We conclude that this type of models can be very relevant to manage and monitor coastal management plans.