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Linear Additive Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Reduction and La Nina on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate

机译:北极海冰减少和拉尼娜对北半球冬季气候的线性累加影响

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Both Arctic sea ice loss and La Nina events can result in cold conditions in midlatitude Eurasia in winter. Since the two forcings sometimes occur simultaneously, determining whether they are independent of each other is undertaken first. The result suggests an overall independence. Considering possible interactions between them, their coordinated impacts on the Northern Hemisphere winter climate are then investigated based on observational data analyses, historical simulation analyses from one coupled model (MPI-ESM-LR) contributing to CMIP5, and atmospheric general circulation model sensitive experiments in ECHAM5. The results show that the impacts of the two forcings are overall linearly accumulated. In comparison with one single forcing, there is intensified cooling response in midlatitude Eurasia along with northern warmer-southern cooler dipolar temperature responses over North America. Despite the additive linearity, additive nonlinearity between the two forcings is identifiable. The nonlinearity causes midlatitude Eurasian cooling weakened by one-tenth to one-fifth as much as their individual impacts in combination. The underlying mechanisms for the weak additive nonlinearity are finally explored by transient adjustment AGCM runs with one single forcing or both the forcings switched on suddenly. The day-to-day evolution of responses suggests that the additive nonlinearity may arise initially from the forced wave dynamics and then be amplified because of the involvement of transient eddy feedbacks.
机译:北极海冰损失和拉尼娜事件都可能导致冬季中纬度欧亚大陆出现寒冷条件。由于这两个强制有时会同时发生,因此首先要确定它们是否彼此独立。结果表明总体独立。考虑到它们之间可能存在的相互作用,然后基于观测数据分析,一个对CMIP5做出贡献的耦合模型(MPI-ESM-LR)进行的历史模拟分析以及大气普通环流模型敏感性实验,研究了它们对北半球冬季气候的协同影响。 ECHAM 5。结果表明,两个强迫的影响总体上是线性累积的。与单次强迫相比,中纬度欧亚大陆的冷却反应增强,北美洲北部的南北偏南偏南温度响应也有所增强。尽管存在加性线性,但可以确定两个强制之间的加性非线性。非线性导致中纬度欧亚大陆的冷却作用减弱了其单个影响的总和的十分之一到五分之一。最后,通过瞬态调整来探索弱加性非线性的潜在机理。AGCM运行时有一个强制或两个强制突然打开。响应的日常演变表明,附加非线性可能最初是由强迫波动力学引起的,然后由于涉及瞬时涡流反馈而被放大。

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