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Homogenization and Assessment of Observed Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends across Sweden, 1956-2013

机译:1956-2013年全瑞典观测到的近地表风速趋势的均质化和评估

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Multidecadal variability of observed near-surface wind speed from 24 stations across Sweden has been analyzed for 1956-2013, with a focus on 1979-2008 (incorporating an additional 9 stations) for comparison with previous studies. Wind speed data have been subjected to a robust data processing protocol, consisting of quality control, reconstruction, and homogenization, by using geostrophic wind speed series as reference. The homogenized dataset displays a significant (at p 0.05) downward trend for 1956-2013 (-0.06ms(-1) decade(-1)) and an even larger decreasing trend for 1979-2008 (-0.14ms(-1) decade(-1)). However, differences have been observed seasonally, with significant decreasing values in spring, summer, and autumn and a small downward trend in winter for 1956-2013. Most interestingly, a nonsignificant wind speed increase has been detected in winter for 1979-2008, which contrasts with the marked "stilling" reported for this season in much of midlatitude regions. The decreasing rate in wind speed is larger for coastal stations and in the southern part of Sweden. Decreasing trends were found at 91.7% of the stations during summer, whereas 58.3% of the stations displayed decreasing trends in winter. On the contrary, increasing trends occurred in 41.7% of the stations for winter and in only 8.3% for summer. The possible impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has also been investigated, showing evidence that the small increasing trend in winter for 1979-2008 is hypothetically associated with the positive tendency of the NAO index during the last decades. These results reveal the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on wind speed variability across Sweden.
机译:在1956-2013年期间,对瑞典24个观测站的近地表风速的多年代际变化进行了分析,重点是1979-2008年(合并了9个观测站),以便与以前的研究进行比较。通过使用地转风速系列作为参考,对风速数据进行了鲁棒的数据处理协议,包括质量控制,重建和均质化。均质化的数据集显示1956-2013年(-0.06ms(-1)十年(-1))的显着下降趋势(p <0.05)和1979-2008年(-0.14ms(-1)甚至更大的下降趋势十年(-1))。然而,从季节上观察到差异,在1956-2013年间,春季,夏季和秋季的数值显着下降,而冬季则呈小幅下降趋势。最有趣的是,在冬季发现1979-2008年的风速没有明显增加,这与中纬度许多地区本季报告的明显“静止”形成鲜明对比。在沿海站和瑞典南部,风速下降率更大。夏季有91.7%的台站下降趋势,而冬季有58.3%的台站下降趋势。相反,冬季有41.7%的气象站出现上升趋势,夏季仅有8.3%。还对北大西洋涛动指数(NAO)的可能影响进行了研究,显示证据表明,1979-2008年冬季的小幅增长趋势与过去十年中NAO指数的积极趋势有关。这些结果揭示了大规模大气环流对整个瑞典风速可变性的影响。

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