Interdecadal Changes in Summertime Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Southeast China during 1960-2009

摘要

This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation and the associated contributing factors over southeast China during 1960-2009. Climatologically, TC rainfall accounts for approximately 20%-40% of the total rainfall over southeast China during boreal summer, and the contribution can even reach 50% for some of the coastal provinces, such as Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Hainan. The dominant mode of TC rainfall reveals a dipole pattern over southern southeast China (SSC) and eastern southeast China (ESC), and the associated principal component time series exhibits remarkable interdecadal variations, with two potential change points being identified in the late 1970s and early 1990s. These interdecadal shifts in TC rainfall are also found to be synchronous with two regime shifts in total rainfall, and they can account for more than 40% of the total rainfall anomalies over the coastal regions of southeast China.