Oil Industry at $50/bbl Would Be Smaller, Simpler

摘要

What would the global oil business look like at $50 oil? The extreme market volatility and lack of Opec price support since 2014 has left governments and companies alike grasping for a medium-term price to plan their affairs. Within Opec, thinking has recently coalesced around $50 per barrel as a level for the next year or two that would keep high-cost production under control while offering some budgetary relief - but what would this mean for the wider industry if sustained for the longer term? An equilibrium price, if one emerges, would see some realignment of costs over time - put simply, the industry would adjust to cope, according to JFI sister publication Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. But this would still have a big impact, forcing out flabbier companies and marginal prospects, and, in theory, creating a leaner, meaner business (JFI Jan.11’16).