Latin America's refinery product demand is decelerating

摘要

The trajectory of refined product balances in Latin America and the Caribbean is changing. With demand growth slowing and throughput expected to rise by 2020, the region's combined deficits for primary petroleum products, led by gasoline and diesel, will not continue to expand in the same manner as in the past decade. This matters not only for economies in the region that are dependent on refined product imports, but also for market fundamentals and prices in the Americas, the Atlantic Basin and beyond. ESAI Energy's recent study, "Tipping the Scale," investigates the country-level and region-wide forecast of regional product balances through 2020.' Super-cycle growth. During the past decade through 2013, demand for refined products in Latin America and the Caribbean grew precipitously. The so-called super-cycle in global commodities markets and an expansion of the middle class and consumer credit led regional oil demand to rise by 2.6%/ yr or 2.1 MMbpd, despite a global recession. At the same time, throughput fell by 300 Mbpd. A number of refineries in the Caribbean closed, while utilization rates dropped in some of the region's oldest refining sectors.