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A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

机译:问题驱动的社会水文建模过程

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Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies. This distinction between the two policies was not apparent using a traditional noncoupled model.
机译:人类和水文系统是耦合的:人类活动会影响水文循环,水文状况可能但并非总是触发人类系统的变化。传统的建模方法在水文系统和人为系统之间没有反馈,通常无法提供有关自然可变性或人为变化的不同模式如何通过此耦合系统传播的见解。耦合的人类水文学系统(也称为社会水文学系统)的模型,认识到人类改变水文系统和水文条件影响人类行为的潜力。但是,这种耦合带来了新的挑战,现有文献并未提供有关模型概念化的明确指导。没有人类行为的普遍规律,就象物理系统一样。此外,人们通常使用对该领域内重要过程的共同理解来开发水文模型,但对于社会水文学系统中的相关过程尚无共识。在这里,我们提出了一个以问题为导向的过程来应对这些挑战。这种方法允许对结构,范围和细节进行建模,以保持对问题上下文的适应性。通过回顾水资源工程中有关水库运行规则的一个经典问题,我们证明了该过程的实用性:水库运行政策对一个成长中的城市的供水可靠性有何影响?我们的示例模型通过将需求下降率与过去的可靠性联系起来,将水文系统与人为系统结合起来,以比较标准运营策略(SOP)与对冲策略(HP)。该模型表明,储层的存储既可以作为变化的缓冲,又可以作为触发围绕可持续需求水平波动的延迟。 HP降低了动作阈值,从而减少了延迟和振荡效果。结果,在缺水时期,人均需求下降更为频繁,但幅度不那么剧烈,小的调整所产生的累加效应降低了系统过度供应可用水量的趋势。使用传统的非耦合模型,两种策略之间的区别并不明显。

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