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Delineation of homogenous regions using hydrological variables predicted by projection pursuit regression

机译:使用投影寻踪回归预测的水文变量描述同质区域

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摘要

This study investigates the utilization of hydrological information in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) to enforce desired properties for a group of gauged stations. Neighbourhoods are particular types of regions that are centred on target locations. A challenge for using neighbourhoods in RFFA is that hydrological information is not available at target locations and cannot be completely replaced by the available physiographical information. Instead of using the available physiographic characteristics to define the centre of a target location, this study proposes to introduce estimates of reference hydrological variables to ensure a better homogeneity. These reference variables represent nonlinear relations with the site characteristics obtained by projection pursuit regression, a nonparametric regression method. The resulting neighbourhoods are investigated in combination with commonly used regional models: the index-flood model and regression-based models. The complete approach is illustrated in a real-world case study with gauged sites from the southern part of the province of Quebec, Canada, and is compared with the traditional approaches such as region of influence and canonical correlation analysis. The evaluation focuses on the neighbourhood properties as well as prediction performances, with special attention devoted to problematic stations. Results show clear improvements in neighbourhood definitions and quantile estimates.
机译:这项研究调查了区域洪水频率分析(RFFA)中水文信息的利用,以增强一组测站的期望性能。邻域是以目标位置为中心的特定区域类型。在RFFA中使用邻域的挑战是目标位置无法获得水文信息,并且无法完全用可用的自然地理信息代替。代替使用可用的生理特征来定义目标位置的中心,本研究建议引入参考水文变量的估计值,以确保更好的同质性。这些参考变量表示通过投影追踪回归(一种非参数回归方法)获得的与站点特征的非线性关系。结合常用的区域模型(指数洪水模型和基于回归的模型)来研究所得的邻域。完整的方法在来自加拿大魁北克省南部的特定地点的实际案例研究中得到了说明,并与传统方法(如影响区域和规范相关分析)进行了比较。评估侧重于邻域属性以及预测性能,并特别关注有问题的站点。结果表明,邻域定义和分位数估计有明显的改进。

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