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Flood trends and variability in the Mekong river

机译:湄公河的洪水趋势和变化

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Annual maximum discharge is analyzed in the Mekong river in Southeast Asia with regard to trends in average flood and trends in variability during the 20th century. Data from four gauging stations downstream of Vientiane, Laos, were used, covering two distinct hydrological regions within the Mekong basin. These time series span through over 70 years and are the longest daily discharge time series available in the region. The methods used, Mann Kendal test (MK), ordinary least squares with resampling (OLS) and non-stationary generalized extreme value function (NSGEV), are first tested in a Monte Carlo experiment, in order to evaluate their detection power in presence of changing variance in the time series. The time series are generated using the generalized extreme value function with varying scale and location parameter. NSGEV outperforms MK and OLS, both because it resulted in less type II errors, but also because it allows for a more complete description of the trends, allowing to separate trends in average and in variability.
机译:分析了东南亚湄公河的年最大流量,该流量涉及20世纪平均洪水趋势和变化趋势。使用了来自老挝万象下游的四个测量站的数据,这些测量站覆盖了湄公河流域内的两个不同的水文区域。这些时间序列跨越70多年,是该地区可用的最长的每日放电时间序列。首先在蒙特卡洛实验中测试了所使用的方法,即曼肯德尔检验(MK),带重采样的普通最小二乘法(OLS)和非平稳广义极值函数(NSGEV),以便在存在以下情况时评估其检测能力:时间序列中的变化方差。使用具有变化比例和位置参数的广义极值函数生成时间序列。 NSGEV的表现优于MK和OLS,这不仅是因为它减少了II型错误,而且还因为它可以对趋势进行更完整的描述,从而可以将平均趋势和可变性分开。

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