Refocusing on the dynamics of the Earth's climate

摘要

Our opinion on the properties of the Earth's climate system does not coincide with that generally accepted. Statistical analysis shows that, if we put aside the most substantial natural perturbing factors, the long-term global temperature dynamics appears as a step function of time. This dynamics is fundamentally different from the climate system's continuous response to external anthropogenic effects, which is demonstrated in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The variants illustrated by a simple model (the system, affected either inadvertently or externally, changes from one quasi-stationary state to another) seem to be more suitable.