Unprecedented escalation in the cost of ingredients is severely impacting the US broiler industry and will be reflected in reduced production. After a 1.8% increase in output of processed broiler meat in 2007, the original USDA forecast of 2% expansion for 2008 will not be attained. Despite a strong rise of nearly 5% during the first three months over the corresponding quarter of 2007, US integrators are now announcing cutbacks that may result in static production in 2008 compared to 2007. Most of the increases that have been recorded in total output relate to higher slaughter weights. For 2009, the US Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS) forecasts less than a 1% increase in production (Table 1). The increase in the price of feed ingredients (Table 2) is 30% for maize and 61% for soybean meal between March 2007 and 2008. During the same period, the USDA index of feed cost has increased by a factor of 30 units.
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