Statoil forecasts 40% growth in global energy demand to 2040.

摘要

The Norwegian energy firm stated in its annual energy and economics outlook that worldwide demand for energy will rise by 40% to 2040 from 13B mt of oil equivalent (96B bbl of oil equivalent) to 18B mt of oil equivalent (132B bbl of oil equivalent) despite significant improvements in energy efficiency. Fossil fuels are expected to account for a majority of this growth, but growth rates for both nuclear and renewable energy were both greater than the growth rate for fossil fuel energy. As a result of the higher growth in both nuclear and renewables, the fossil fuel share in the energy mix will drop from 81% currently to 73% by 2040. Renewable energy will become particularly popular in Western Europe as a result of climate and environmental policies, a focus on energy security, and price and cost developments. Renewable energy use in the region will more than double to 2040 and account for 24% of that total Western European energy mix by that time. According to Statoil chief economist Klaus Mohn, "Our assessment suggests that global growth will continue at an average of 2.8% per year over the coming three decades. This is close to the average of the previous 30 years, even though we expect a gradual slowdown in growth towards 2040. Demand will increase for all types of energy. At the same time, we expect continued progress for energy efficiency, amounting to a 40% reduction in energy use per dollar of real GDP."