IEA scales back forecasts of 4Q oil price spike.

摘要

According to the head of the International Energy Agency, David Fyfe, the agency believes the potential spike in oil prices in 4Q will be less likely than it had predicted in June due to an economic slowdown and the resumption of Libya's oil output. Over the past year and half, the global oil market has narrowed between 500K-1MM b/d as a result of production outages in Libya and non-OPEC regions (e.g., North Sea, Canada), and for the first time since 2008, OECD inventories are below the five-year average. From Sept. to Aug., global oil supply levels dropped,300K b/d to 88.7MM b/d. For 4Q 2011, non-OPEC supply projections have been cut by 300K b/d and for 2012, by 200K b/d. As compared to last month, 3Q and 4Q global crude run estimates have been decreased by 50K b/d and 75K b/d, respectively. Now averaging 75.5MM b/d in 3Q and 75.3MM b/d in 4Q are global throughputs.