IEA: oil should balance at $80 by 2020.

摘要

In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that it expects that global oil markets will not rebalance until 2020. When they do, the IEA said, it will likely be at a price of about $80/bbl "with further increases in price thereafter." Demand, the organization said, could be expected to rise by an average of 900K b/d per year, growing from 94.5MM b/d this year to 104.5MM b/d in 2040. Dissenting from recent theories about approaching peak oil demand, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that oil prices are highly unlikely to be stuck at $50/bbl for "many many years." Still, the IEA expects that demand growth will be "moderated by higher prices, efforts to phase out subsidies (provided that momentum behind reform is maintained, even as oil prices pick up), efficiency policies and switching to alternative fuels." Mr. Birol added that OECD demand would continue to decline in the long-term, while Middle East supplies will continue to be critical to global markets.