MARKET INSIGHT: LNG Overflow Coming?

摘要

LNG netbacks calculated off near-month futures prices continue to favor Northwest Europe for most sellers, even though October prices briefly converged at $3.78 per million Btu in both the US and UK Friday, after last week's unexpected $1 runup at Henry Hub (see table). However, a more central question for LNG flows over the next few weeks may be which market can accept additional volumes without collapsing — a potential demonstrated by a plunge in UK prompt prices to a three-year low of 5 pence per therm (810/MMBtu) Monday. Day-ahead gas hit 11.75 p/th ($1.90/MMBtu), as a planned two-week closure of the Interconnector pipeline to Belgium kept heavy LNG sendout and ample pipeline gas flows from Norway both pinned up in the UK.