Natural Gas Unlikely to Dent Coal's Dominant Role in Poland

摘要

Poland gets roughly 85%-90% of its electricity from plants fired by coal and lignite, making it one of Europe's dirtiest electricity generators, and is among the 14 EU members that the European Commission thinks will miss their 2020 renewable energy targets. Since 2008, gas has struggled to account for more than 3% of national electricity output, while renewables have built up a 7% share, way below the 2020 target of 19.3% (WGI Aug. 14'13). The country is retiring old coal plants, and building up renewables and gas-fired generation capacity, but not as fast as it is developing new coal-fired units. An update last month from Poland's energy regulator, the ERO, on planned investment by the main power generators from 2014-18 showed that 6 gigawatts of new generation capacity worth roughly $14 billion was at a "significantly advanced stage" of development and should be operational by the end of 2018. According to Poland's Supreme Audit Office (NIK), most are likely to be coal-fired units (see table). Out to 2028, ERO said some 18 GW could be built, of which roughly 40% would be wind, 32% coal and 22% gas.