Note: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For other crops, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project yield are noted on each table. Survey-based production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 11 issue of this report. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2006/07 wheat supplies are up 17 million bushels from last month, as higher beginning stocks and imports more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased 22 million bushels based on USDA's June 30 Stocks report. The first survey-based forecast of spring wheat (including durum) production, at 526 million bushels, is down 24 million from last month's projection. Forecast winter wheat production is raised 16 million bushels. Imports are raised 5 million bushels. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 5 million bushels. The first wheat supply and demand projections by class for 2006/07 indicate tighter supplies for hard red winter, hard red spring, and durum compared with the year earlier. The projected all-wheat, season-average price range is raised 10 cents on each end to 3.70 dollar to 4.30 dollar per bushel. The 2006/07 global wheat outlook includes higher production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks, compared with last month. Higher production in China and Ukraine is mainly due to favorable weather boosting yields.Lower production in Australia is based on dryness lowering planted area. Consumption is raised mainly due to increases in China, Turkey, and Ukraine, while stocks are up mostly in China. Exports are increased for China, Ukraine, and Canada but and decreased for Australia and Turkey. Imports are increased for Brazil and Turkey but decreased for China. In this month's forecast, China's exports exceed China's imports. COARSE GRAINS: The 2006/07 U.S. outlook for corn includes higher production, lower beginning stocks, and higher use, compared with last month. Production is increased because of higher area while feed and residual use rises in line with an increase for 2005/06. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged, and the projected price range remains at 2.25 dollar to 2.65 dollar per bushel. The first survey-based production forecasts for barley and oats are down from last month's projection. For both, imports are raised while use and stocks are lowered. For 2005/06, U.S. corn exports are increased 25 million bushels, based on the recent pace of shipments and sales. Feed and residual use is raised 100 million bushels, as implied by the June 30 Stocks report. Ending stocks are lowered 114 million bushels. The season-average price range is reduced 5 cents on the high end to 1.95 dollar to 2.00 dollar per bushel, to better reflect recent farm prices.
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