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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

机译:世界农业供求估计

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WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2006/07 are raised 20 million bushels this month. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of shipments and sales and increased competition from higher world production and supplies.A 5-million-bushel increase in food use based on the most recent mill grind data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census partly offsets lowered exports. The price range is lowered 10 cents on the top end of the range to 4.15 dollar to 4.45 dollar per bushel.COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn, sorghum, and oats supply and use projections for 2006/07 are all unchanged this month. Barley exports for 2006/07 are raised 5 million bushels reflecting the pace of export shipments and sales for the marketing year. Barley ending stocks are lowered correspondingly. Corn and sorghum prices are both raised 10 cents on both ends of their respective ranges to 2.90 dollar to 3.30 dollar per bushel. Barley and oats prices are unchanged. RICE: No changes in rice are made on the 2006/07 supply side from a month ago. However, on the use side, 2006/07 exports are raised 5 million cwt to 102 million cwt. Despite a reduction in exports to some markets due to biotech rice (LLRICE601), exports to other markets are doing well, particularlyto markets in the Western Hemisphere (including Mexico and Central America) and Iraq. Rough rice exports are increased 3 million cwt to 38 million cwt, while exports of combined milled and brown rice are increased 2 million cwt to 64 million cwt (on a rough basis). Long-grain exports are increased 4 million cwt and combined medium-and short-grain exports are increased 1 million cwt. As a result, ending stocks are lowered 5 million cwt to 29.5 million cwt. The season-average farm price range is raised 55 cents per cwt on the low end and increased 45 cents on the high end to 9.55 dollar to 9.95 dollar per cwt compared to 7.62 dollar per cwt in 2005/06. OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 97.0 million tons, down fractionally due to aslight reduction in cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2006/07 are unchanged from last month. Soybean ending stocks for 2006/07 are projected at a record 565 million bushels, up 26 percent from 2005/06. Soybean oil supply, use, and endingstocks for 2006/07 are all raised this month. Despite unchanged soybean crush, soybean oil production is increased due to a higher projected extraction rate. SUGAR: Projected 2006/07 U.S. sugar supply is increased 111,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, mainly due to higher production, which more than offsets lower beginning stocks. Production is increased 177,000 tons, based on processor estimates compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Beet sugar production is increased 191,000 tons to a record5.1 million tons, while Hawaii cane sugar production is lowered 24,000 tons. Louisiana cane sugar production is unchanged based on data reported by sugarcane processors prior to recent freezes. Sugar use is unchanged. For 2005/06, processor revisions reduce ending stocks 63,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Compared with last month, total forecasts for U.S. meat production is raised for 2006 but lowered for 2007. Beef production for 2006 is raised because cow slaughter during the fourth quarter is expected to remain high as cattle producers continue to respond to tight forage supplies. Small increases are made to broiler meat production but estimates for pork and turkey are unchanged from last month. The 2007 broiler meat forecasts are reduced from last month as eggs set and chick placements point to slower production growth. Beef, pork, and turkey production forecasts are unchanged. COTTON: This month's 2006/07 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include lower domestic mill use and exports, resulting in higher ending stocks. Production is virtually unchanged, as a significant increase for Georgia is about offset by lower estimates for the Carolinas, the Delta States, and the Californi
机译:小麦:本月2006/07年度美国小麦期末库存预估上调了2000万蒲式耳。出口减少了2500万蒲式耳,这反映了出货和销售的缓慢步伐以及来自更高的世界生产和供应的竞争加剧。根据美国人口普查局的最新轧机数据,粮食使用量增加了500万蒲式耳。抵消出口减少。价格范围的最高端降低了10美分,至每蒲式耳4.15美元至4.45美元。粗粮:本月美国2006、07年度玉米,高粱和燕麦的供应量和使用量预测均保持不变。 2006/07年度大麦出口量上调了500万蒲式耳,这反映了该销售年度出口量和销售量的增长。大麦期末库存相应降低。玉米和高粱价格在各自区间的两端均上调了10美分,至每蒲式耳2.90美元至3.30美元。大麦和燕麦价格不变。大米:2006/07年供应方面的大米价格与一个月前相比没有变化。但是,在使用方面,2006/07年度出口增加了500万英担,至1.02亿英担。尽管由于转基因大米(LLRICE601)对某些市场的出口减少,但对其他市场的出口却表现良好,尤其是对西半球(包括墨西哥和中美洲)和伊拉克的市场。糙米出口量增加了300万英担,至3,800万英担,而粗米和糙米的出口总额则增加了200万英担,至6,400万英担(按粗略计算)。长粒谷物出口增加了400万英担,中粒和短粒谷物出口总计增加了100万英担。结果,期末库存降低了500万英担,至2950万英担。季节性平均农场价格范围低端上调了55美分/英担,高端上调了45美分,至9.55美元/英担/9.95美元,而2005/06年度为7.62美元/英担。油籽:预计美国油籽总产量为9700万吨,部分下降的原因是棉籽的轻度减产。 2006/07年度大豆供应和使用量预测与上月持平。预计2006/07年度大豆期末库存为创纪录的5.65亿蒲式耳,比2005/06年度增长26%。本月提高了2006/07年度的豆油供应,使用和期末库存。尽管大豆压榨率保持不变,但由于预计的提取率更高,因此大豆油的产量增加了。糖:预计2006/07年美国食糖供应比上月增加111,000短吨,原价,主要是由于产量提高,这足以抵消期初库存的减少。根据农业服务局的估算,产量增加了177,000吨。甜菜糖产量增加了191,000吨,达到创纪录的510万吨,而夏威夷蔗糖产量减少了24,000吨。根据近期冻结之前甘蔗加工者报告的数据,路易斯安那州的蔗糖产量没有变化。糖的使用没有变化。对于2005/06年度,加工商的修订减少了期末库存63,000吨。牲畜,家禽和乳制品:与上月相比,美国2006年肉类产量的总预测上调,但2007年有所下调。2006年牛肉产量上调是因为预计第四季度奶牛屠宰量将保持较高水平,因为养牛者继续应对草料供应紧张。肉鸡产量略有增长,但猪肉和火鸡的价格与上月相比没有变化。 2007年肉鸡的预测较上月有所下调,原因是产蛋量和雏鸡放置量表明产量增长放缓。牛肉,猪肉和火鸡的产量预测没有变化。棉花:本月2006/07年美国棉花供求预估包括国内工厂使用量和出口量减少,导致期末库存增加。产量几乎没有变化,因为佐治亚州的大幅增长被卡罗来纳州,三角州和加利福尼亚的较低预估所抵消

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