WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are unchanged from last month as no changes are made to supplies or usage. The projected price range is narrowed by 5 cents on either end to3.00 dollar to 3.50 dollar. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2004/05 U.S. feed grains is for a larger total crop and larger ending stocks. Forecast 2004 corn production is up 38 million bushels from last month to a record 10,961 million bushels. Forecast 2004 grain sorghum production is up 7 million bushels. Projected beginning stocks of 2004/05 corn rise 40 million bushels due to a reduction in 2003/04 exports. With no change in projected 2004/05 corn use, projected ending stocks rise 77 million bushels from last month. The larger grain sorghum crop isreflected in increased 2004/05 stocks. The projected price range for corn is down 5 cents on each end from last month to 2.00 dollar to 2.40 dollar per bushel. For grain sorghum, the projected price range is lowered by 10 cents on each end to 1.90 dollar to 2.30 dollar per bushel. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2004/05 is forecast at a record 221.7 million cwt, fractionally higher than last month. Planted and harvested area are estimated at 3.364 million acres and 3.334 million acres, respectively (each up 0.5 percent from last month). Average yield is estimated at a record 6,651 pounds per acre, down 29 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is estimated at 162.5 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month, and combined medium and short-grain production is estimated at 59.2 million cwt, down nearly 3 percent from a month ago. While no changes are made to domestic and residual use and exports for all rice, slight changes are made to the by-class projections. Beginning stocks are loweredfrom last month. Ending stocks of all rice are projected at 32.9 million cwt, 3 percent below last month, but 39 percent above 2003/04. The season-average farm price is projected at 7.00 dollar to 7.50 dollar per cwt, up 25 cents per cwt on both ends from a month earlier. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 6.3 million tons, unchanged from last month, as lower oilseed production is offset by reduced use. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 87.7 million tons, down 0.9 milliontons from last month, reflecting a production decline for soybeans. Soybean production is forecast at 2,836 million bushels, down 41 million. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 41,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as lower production more than offsets higher beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is raised 26,000 tons while cane sugar is lowered 77,000 tons, as reported by processors to the Farm Service Agency. Florida cane sugar production is unchanged. Sugar use isunchanged. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation ofpolicies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. COTTON: The 2004/05 U.S. cotton projections reflect upward revisions in supply and demand this month. Forecast production is raised 712,000 bales to a record 20.9 million bales. However, beginning stocks are reduced 100,000 bales to 3.5 million bales based on a preliminary Bureau of the Census report for 2003/04; thus, the total supply is raised to 24.4 million bales. Domestic mill use is raised 200,000 bales in both 2003/04 and 2004/05 to reflect additional mill use not included in previous Census reports. Exports are raised 200,000 bales in 2004/05 to 12.2 million bales. Accordingly, ending stocks are revised up slightly to 6.1 million bales.
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