World agricultural supply and demand estimates

摘要

Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are unchanged from last month as a 10-million-bushel reduction in imports is offset by reduced food use. The lower projected food use for 2003/04 is in line with a downward adjustment in use for 2002/03linked to recently released mill grind estimates by the Bureau of Census. The projected price range is down 20 cents on the top end of the range to 3.10 dollar to 3.50 dollar per bushel because of lower-than-expected prices during the first quarter of themarketing year. This month's outlook for 2003/04 U.S. feed grains is for lower crops, reduced use, and slightly smaller stocks. Forecast 2003 corn production is down 120 million bushels from last month. With no change in use, all of the decline in production is reflected in lower ending stocks. A smaller sorghum crop is reflected in reduced domestic use, exports, and ending stocks of sorghum. The projected price range for corn is up 10 cents on each end to 2.10 dollar to 2.50 dollar per bushel. U.S. rice production for 2003/04 is forecast at 198.2 million cwt, 3 million cwt higher than last month. The U.S. 2003/04 average yield is forecast at a record 6,655 pounds per acre, up 78 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is forecast at 147.2 million cwt, up 2.5 million cwt from last month and combined medium and short-grain production is forecast at 50.9 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the August forecast. Total use is raised nearly 2 million cwt to 215.1 million cwt. An increase inexports to 91 million cwt more than offsets lower domestic and residual use. Ending stocks are projected at 25.4 million cwt, 7.8 million cwt above last month, but down 1.4 million cwt from the revised 2002/03 forecast. The season-average farm price isprojected at 6.25 dollar to 6.75 dollar per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on both ends from a month earlier but up from a revised 4.22 dollar per cwt for 2002/03. U.S. oilseed stocks for 2003/04 are reduced sharply from last month as oilseed yields and production decline. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 81.5 million tons, down 6.0 million tons from last month. Soybean production is down 219 million bushels from last month to 2.6 billion bushels, based on a yield of 36.4 bushels per acre. This wouldbe the smallest crop since 1996/97. Yield declines were mainly in the western Corn Belt States and the upper Midwest. Other oilseed production changes this month include a modest increase in peanut production and a reduction in cottonseed production. Soybean exports are reduced 60 million bushels to 940 million bushels. Soybean crush is also reduced as higher prices reduce domestic use and prospective exports for both soybean meal and oil. Soybean ending stocks for 2003/04 are projected at 135 millionbushels, the lowest since 1996/97. The projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is increased slightly from last month. Higher beginning stocks and imports more than offset the decreased production. Imports include the tariff rate quota (TRQ)announced on August 13 and shortfall of 50,000 short tons, raw value. Processors' production projections, compiled by the Farm Service Agency, are down 73,000 tons from last month. On the use side, deliveries for domestic food and beverage use are lowered 150,000 tons, in line with a reduction for 2002/03. The total stocks-to-use ratio is 20.0 percent, compared with 18.2 percent last month. Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for both 2003 and 2004 are raised from last month. Forecast beef production in 2003 is raised as tighter total beef supplies and strong demand have boosted prices and are encouraging producers to market cattle early. However, beef production declines in 2004 are expected to be steeper than forecast last month as cattleinventories continue to decline. Pork production forecasts for both 2003 and 2004 are raised as higher expected levels of imported hogs boost slaughter through the early part of 2004. Broiler production