World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

摘要

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2007/08 are raised this month 12 million bushels due to lower projected domestic use. At 292 million bushels, this year's ending stocks are forecast to be the lowest in 60 years. Feed and residual use is projected 10 million bushels lower for 2007/08 as December 1 stocks, reported in January Grain Stocks, indicate lower-than-expected feed and residual use during September-November. Seed use is reduced 2 million bushels based on lower-than-expected hard red winter wheat planted area as reported in Winter Wheat Seedings. The season-average farm price is projected at 6.45 dollar to 6.85 per bushel dollar, 25 cents higher on each end of the range, reflecting strong cash, and futures prices and lower-than-expected hard red winter wheat seedings. The projected range is well above the record of 4.55 per bushel dollar in 1995/96. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn ending stocks for 2007/08 are reduced 359 million bushels this month based on lower estimated production andincreased feed and residual use. Corn supplies for 2007/08 are lowered 94 million bushels based on lower estimated production. Feed and residual use is raised 300 million bushels based on September-November disappearance as indicated by December 1 stocks. Projected food, seed, and industrinal use is reduced 15 million bushels in line with lower-than-expected shipments of sweeteners and starch during September-November. The season-average farm price for corn is projected at 3.70 dollar to 4.30 per bushel dollar, up 35 cents on both ends of the range based on the sharp rise in both cash and futures prices that has been sustained during recent weeks. RICE: The U.S. 2007/08 rice crop is estimated at 197.5 million cwt, down slightly from the previous estimate, but 2 percent above 2006/07. Average yield is estimated at a record 7,185 pounds per acre, down 62 pounds per acre from November but 317 pounds per acre above 2006/07. Planted area is estimated at 2.761 million acres, up slightly from November but adecrease of 3 percent from 2006/07. Imports for 2007/08 are projected at a record 21.5 million cwt, unchanged from last month. Domestic and residual use is projected at 124.7 million cwt, unchanged from last month. The all-rice export projection is unchanged at 109 million cwt. Ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 24.6 million cwt, down slightly from last month. The season-average farm price range is unchanged at 10.90 dollar to 11.40 per cwt dollar and compares to 9.74 per cwt dollar in 2006/07.The midpoint of the price range at OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2007/08 is estimated at 80.0 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month, and 16.6 million tons below last year's record. Small reductions for soybean and canola productionwere offset by increases for sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanuts. Soybean production is estimated at 2.585 billion bushels, down 9 million bushels from last month based on a slightly lower yield. The soybean yield is estimated at 41.2 bushels per acre. Soybean exports and crush projections are unchanged from last month. Soybean stocks are projected at 175 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. If realized, stocks would be at the lowest level since 2003/04. Soybean oil stocks are projectedhigher this month reflecting increased production due to a higher extraction rate. SUGAR: Projected 2007/08 U.S. sugar supply is decreased 44,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, mainly due to lower production. Production is decreased 46,000 tons, based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. A minor decrease in imports nearly offsets higher beginning stocks, which are raised 5,000 tons to reflect revised 2006/07 ending stocks. Demand for 2007/08 is unchanged. LIVESTOCK,POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total 2008 U.S. meat production is raised reflecting higher beef and pork production. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are unchanged. Beef production is ra