World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

摘要

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2007/08 are unchanged this month as lower feed and residual use offsets an increase in exports. Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower as the March 1 stocks indicated lower-than-expected use in the December-February quarter. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher as export sales and shipments remain strong with several major export competitors taxing or otherwise restricting shipments. The projected range for the season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on each end to 6.55 dollar to 6.75 per bushel dollar. RICE: No changes are made to the U.S. 2007/08 rice supply and use projections. However, the season-average farm price is raised 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range to 12.05 dollar to 12.35 per cwt dollar, compared to 9.96 per cwt dollar for 2006/07. SUGAR: Projected 2007/08 U.S. sugar supply is decreased 28,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower production. Production is based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Projected use is unchanged. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total 2008 U.S. meat production is raised as higher expected beef and pork production more than offset lower forecast broiler production. Beef production is increased due to continued strong cow slaughter and higher-than-expected cattle weights. Pork production forecasts are raised as USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on March 28, indicated large hog inventories on March 1, upwardly revised pig crops for second half 2007, and pointed to a relatively large pig crop in the first half of 2008. Although this implies larger slaughter in 2008, increased forecast corn prices are expected to limit hog weights. Poultry production forecasts are reduced as hatchery data point to a slowdown in production and higher grain prices are expected to affect growth later in the year. Turkey production is increased slightly as early gains in the first part of the year offset expected slower growth in the second half. Egg production is raised slightly for 2008 as the industry responds to continued high egg prices. COTTON: This month's estimates for 2007/08 U.S. cotton include higher production, domestic mill use, and ending stocks. Production is raised nearly 400,000 bales to 19.4 million based on the final Cotton Ginnings report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service in late March. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales to 4.7 million due to higher than anticipated activity in recent months. The export estimate is unchanged. Accordingly, forecast ending stocks are raised 300,000 bales to 9.7 million, slightly above last season and the highest level since 1966/67.