Calculated Risk: Two new modeling tools help decision-makers manage multiple fires in high-risk environments

摘要

In late July 2006, firefighting resources were stretched thin across the West, and more fires seemed to be starting every day. On July 23 and 24, the Shasta-Trinity National Forest in California was hit by a series of lightning strikes that started multiple ignitions across the forest. Joe Millar, the forest's fire management officer, realized that a number of these fires had potential to become serious problems. Millar was in touch with Bernie Bahro, the California geographic liaison for a new RapidResponse Decision Support Team, which was supporting a set of fire assessment tools developed by the Rocky Mountain Research Station. Bahro quickly agreed to work with the team — from the Missoula Fire Lab, the Missoula Forest Science Lab, and the newBoise Wildland Fire Research, Development & Application unit and led by — composed of highly skilled researchers led by Mark Finney — to develop some Fire Spread Probability, or rspro, and Rapid Assessment Values at Risk projections for Shasta-Trinityto support prioritizing the fires and assessing long-term strategies.