An uncertainty analysis of the flood-stage upstream from a bridge

摘要

The paper begins with the formulation of the problem in the form of a general performance function. Next the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique - a modified version of the Monte Carlo method is briefly described. The essential uncertainty analysis of the flood-stage upstream from a bridge starts with a description of the hydraulic model. This model concept is based on the HEC-RAS model developed for subcritical flow under a bridge without piers in which the energy equation is applied. The next section contains the characteristic of the basic variables including a specification of their statistics (means and variances). Next the problem of correlated variables is discussed and assumptions concerning correlation among basic variables are formulated. The analysis of results is based on LHS ranking lists obtained from the computer package UNCSAM. Results fot two examples are given: one for independent and the other for correlated variables.