Numerical Simulations of the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008): Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Implications for the Roles of Intense Convection and Moisture Conditions

摘要

The sensitivity of numerical simulations of the genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008) to initial conditions is examined using the Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The initial and boundary conditions are derived from two different global analyses at different lead times. One simulation successfully captures the processes of Nuri's genesis and early intensification, whereas other simulations fail to predict the genesis of Nuri. Discrepancies between simulations with and without Nuri's development are diagnosed. Significant differences are found in the development and organization of the intense convection during Nuri's pregenesis phase. In the developing case, convection evolves and organizes into a pouch center of a westward-propagating wavelike disturbance. In the nondeveloping case, the convection fails to develop and organize. Favorable conditions for the development of deep convection include strong closed circulation patterns with high humidity, especially at the middle levels. An additional set of sensitivity experiments is performed to examine the impact of the moisture field on numerical simulations of Nuri's genesis. Results confirm that the enhancement of mid- to upper-level moisture is favorable for Nuri's genesis, mainly because moist conditions benefit deep convection, which produces diabatic heating from latent heat release when vertical airmass flux maxima occur in the mid- to upper-level atmosphere. The substantial warming at upper levels induced by latent heat release from persistent deep convection contributes to the drop in Nuri's minimum central sea level pressure. Overall, results from this study demonstrate that it is essential to accurately represent the initial conditions in numerical predictions of tropical cyclone genesis.