A Rocky Mountain storm. part II: The forest blowdown over the west slope of the northern Colorado Mountains - Observations, analysis, and modeling

摘要

A devastating winter storm affected the Rocky Mountain states over the 3-day period of 24-26 October 1997. Blizzard conditions persisted over the foothills and adjoining plains from Wyoming to southern New Mexico, with maximum total snowfall amounts near 1.5 m. (Part I of this two-part paper describes the observations and modeling of this blizzard event.) During the morning of 25 October 1997, wind gusts in excess of 50 m s(-1) were estimated west of the Continental Divide near Steamboat Springs in northern Colorado. These winds flattened approximately 5300 ha (13 000 acres) of old-growth forest in the Routt National Forest and Mount Zirkel Wilderness. Observations, analysis, and numerical modeling were used to examine the kinematics of this extreme event. A high-resolution, local-area model (the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) was used to investigate the ability of a local model to capture the timing and strength of the windstorm and the aforementioned blizzard. Results indicated that a synergistic combination of strong cross-barrier easterly flow; very cold lower-tropospheric air over Colorado, which modified the stability profile; and the presence of a critical layer led to devastating downslope winds. The high-resolution simulations demonstrated the potential for accurately capturing mesoscale spatial and temporal features of a downslope windstorm more than 1 day in advance. These simulations were quasi forecast in nature, because a combination of two 48-h Eta Model forecasts were used to specify the lateral boundary conditions. Increased predictive detail of the windstorm was also found by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing from 5 to 1.67 km in the local-area model simulations. [References: 39]