Application of ARIMA Model for Forecasting Cultivated Areas, Production and Yield of Jasmine in Madurai District of Tamil Nadu

摘要

Tamil Nadu is the leading producer of jasmine in the country. The major Jasmine producing districts of Tamil Nadu are Madurai, Dindigul, Salem, Tirunelveli, Virudhunagar and Trichy. Madurai Malli" is a famous brand of jasmine which received the GI. Tag recently for its uniqueness in appearance and fragrance. Demand for Madurai malli (2013-14) during the year is estimated to be 10543 tonnes while the district produced only 9577 tonnes leaving a demand and supply gap of 967 tonnes. The annual data on Madurai district Jasmine cultivated area and production and productivity for the period from 1990-91 to 2013-14 were used for forecasting the future values using ARIM A models. From the ARIMA model, it can be seen that forecasted jasmine cultivated area showing increasing trend, production showing stagnant growth and yield showing declining trend for the next three years. The model can be used by researchers for forecasting jasmine cultivated areas, production and yield in Madurai.