Identifying Significant Predictors of Head-on Conflicts on Two-Lane Rural Roads Using Inductive Loop Detectors Data

摘要

Objective: To identify the significant factors that influence head-on conflicts resulting from dangerous overtaking maneuvers on 2-lane rural roads in Iran. Methods: A traffic conflict technique was applied to 12 two-lane rural roads in order to investigate the potential situations for accidents to occur and thus to identify the geometric and traffic factors affecting traffic conflicts. Traffic data were collected via the inductive loop detectors installed on these roads, and geometric characteristics were obtained through field observations. Two groups of data were then analyzed independently by Pearson's chi-square test to evaluate their relationship to traffic conflicts. The independent variables were percentage of time spent following (PTSF), percentage of heavy vehicles, directional distribution of traffic (DDT), mean speed, speed standard deviation, section type, road width, longitudinal slope, holiday or workday, and lighting condition. Results: It was indicated that increasing the PTSF, decreasing the percentage of heavy vehicles, increasing the mean speed (up to 75 km/h), increasing DDT in the range of 0 to 60 percent, and decreasing the standard deviation of speed significantly increased the occurrence of traffic conflicts. It was also revealed that traffic conflicts occur more frequently on curve sections and on workdays. The variables road width, slope, and lighting condition were found to have a minor effect on conflict occurrence. Conclusion: To reduce the number of head-on conflicts on the aforementioned roads, some remedial measures are suggested, such as not constructing long "No Passing" zones and constructing passing lanes where necessary; keeping road width at the standard value; constructing roads with horizontal curves and a high radius and using appropriate road markings and overtaking-forbidden signs where it is impossible to modify the radius; providing enough light and installing caution signs/devices on the roads; and intensifying police control and supervision on workdays, especially in peak hours.