A probabilistic approach to evaluate creep and fatigue damage in critical components

摘要

The subject of reliability assessment of plant components is of considerable importance to maintenance and operations engineers. There exist different degradation mechanisms such as creep and fatigue in the plant components operating under conditions of high pressure and temperature. Hence, the safety issue of these components must be addressed by a realistic reliability model so that the frequency of in-service inspection activities can be optimized. In this work, a probabilistic module based on first order reliability method and Markov model is used in order to calculate different failure state probabilities of an in-service thermal power plant pipe-bend. This procedure helps in online risk assessment of critical plant components. The method of determination partial safety factors of the above component for optimum design based on a target reliability level is also discussed.