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Does One Soros Make a Difference?A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders

机译:一个索罗斯会有所作为吗?一种大小交易者的货币危机理论

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Do large investors increase the vulnerability of a country to speculative attacks in the foreign exchange markets?To address this issue,we build a model of currency crises where a single large investor and a continuum of small investors independently decide whether to attack a currency based on their private information about fundamentals.Even abstracting from signalling,the presence of the large investor does make all other traders more aggressive in their selling.Relative to the case in which there is no large investor,small investors attack the currency when fundamentals are stronger.Yet,the difference can be small,or non-existent,depending on the relative precision of private information of the small and large investors.Adding signalling makes the influence of the large trader on small traders'behaviour much stronger.
机译:大型投资者是否会增加一个国家在外汇市场上遭受投机性攻击的脆弱性?为了解决此问题,我们建立了一种货币危机模型,由一个大型投资者和一个连续的小型投资者独立地根据以下情况决定是否攻击一种货币:他们的基本面私人信息。即使从信号中抽象出来,大投资者的存在也确实使所有其他交易者的卖盘更加激进。相对于没有大投资者的情况,小投资者在基本面较强时会攻击货币。然而,取决于小投资者和大投资者私人信息的相对精确度,差异可能很小,也可能不存在。添加信号会使大交易者对小交易者的行为产生更大的影响。

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