The petrochemical industry has a typical periodicity that is shaped primarily by supply and demand on one hand and on the other hand by newly added capacity being put into production,operating rate and other uncertainty factors.It generally goes through a cycle every 7-9 years,from peak to trough and then back to the top.Product price,gross production profit and operating rate are the major signals of cycle changes.Twenty years ago,the first peak appeared around 1979,the second appeared around 1988,the third appeared around 1995,the fourth started in 2004 and is in high-end level presently.According to the prediction of CMAI,the EBIT of the olefins and polyolefins production industry worldwide would reach peak value in 2006,then enter a descending slope from 2007,reaching the bottom in 2010,and climbing back to reach another peak value again in 2014.
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