BSE in Northern Ireland: epidemiological patterns past, present and future.

摘要

By 30 January 1998, there had been 170 259 confirmed cases of BSE in Great Britain, 1766 confirmed cases in Northern Ireland (NI) and 276 confirmed cases in the Republic of Ireland. Analysis of the epidemiological patterns in the NI epidemic showedsignificant clustering of cases in herds and counties. The observed clustering of cases within herds results in lower per capita incidence of BSE in previously unaffected herds, providing support for the introduction of a certified herd scheme in NI. Byfitting a back-calculation model to the case data, the number of animals infected with the aetiological agent of BSE and the number of future cases could be estimated. It is predicted that the epidemic will decline rapidly, with approximately 99 cases occurring in the five year period 1997-2001.