The Application of Grey System Theory in Asset Securitization Project

摘要

This paper gives a brief introduction to the background of Asset Securitization Project of Manwan Power Plant owned by Yunnan Huaneng Lantsang Hydropower Exploitation Co., Ltd., climatic and hydrological features of Lantsang valley (especially Manwan valley). Then introduces a pair of GM(1,1) models with A-(I)(1) and xw{n) being the initial conditions. And, by taking the pair of GM(1,1) models as an example, the author elaborates how to apply "the method of grey relative difference" judging stability of hydrological system and providing basis for selecting specific prediction raodles and selecting time span; then the author verifies the GM(1,1) model; finally, the author predicts the reservoir runoff of Manwan power plant with the verified GM( 1,1) model.