Impacts of policy related to structural adjustment of agriculture on grain supply in China

摘要

China's policy on structural adjustment of its agriculture is an effective instrument for increasing agricultural production and developing the rural economy. The policy interventions used included converting cultivated land from growing grain crops to cash crops and increasing the production of meat, eggs and milk. The impacts of these changes on grain supply between 1998 and 2004 are identified and quantified at national and regional levels. The data on cultivated land diverted to other purposes are presented for the benefit of the decision maker. The paper concludes that the policy had significant impacts on China's grain supply, which declined by 14.4% of the total grain output in 1998. However, nearly 40% of the cultivated land at national level could potentially be converted by 2010. Regional disparities in the extent of the reduction in grain supply and in land conversion are highlighted with reference to different economic conditions and policy directions.