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Recurrent host mobility in spatial epidemics: Beyond reaction-diffusion

机译:宿主在空间流行中的流动性:超越反应扩散

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Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modeled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of infection across distance has been introduced to capture spatial dispersal implicitly. Both approaches do not account for important aspects of natural human mobility, diffusion does not capture the high degree of predictability in natural human mobility patters, e.g. the high percentage of return movements to individuals' base location, the effective force of infection approach assumes immediate equilibrium with respect to dispersal. These conditions are typically not met in natural scenarios. We investigate an epidemiological model that explicitly captures natural individual mobility patterns. We systematically investigate generic dynamical features of the model on regular lattices as well as metapopulation networks and show that generally the model exhibits significant dynamical differences in comparison to ordinary diffusion and effective force of infection models. For instance, the natural human mobility model exhibits a saturation of wave front speeds and a novel type of invasion threshold that is a function of the return rate in mobility patterns. In the light of these new findings and with the availability of precise and pervasive data on human mobility our approach provides a framework for a more sophisticated modeling of spatial disease dynamics.
机译:人的流动性是空间疾病动态和相关现象的关键因素。在计算模型中,主机移动性通常是通过在空间中或在中继网络上的扩散来建模的。替代地,已经引入了跨越距离的有效感染力以隐式捕获空间散布。两种方法都没有考虑自然人流动性的重要方面,扩散并未捕获自然人流动性模式中的高度可预测性,例如在返回到个人基本位置的百分比很高的情况下,有效的感染力方法假设在扩散方面立即达到平衡。在自然场景中通常不满足这些条件。我们调查了一种流行病学模型,该模型明确捕获了自然的个体流动模式。我们系统地研究了该模型在规则晶格以及后代种群网络上的一般动力学特征,并表明与一般的扩散模型和感染模型的有效力相比,该模型通常表现出显着的动力学差异。例如,自然的人类流动性模型表现出波前速度的饱和和新型的侵入阈值,该阈值是流动性模式中返回率的函数。鉴于这些新发现,并且由于有了关于人类活动性的精确且普遍的数据,我们的方法为空间疾病动力学的更复杂建模提供了框架。

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