The economic attractiveness of Short Rotation Coppice biomass plantations for bioenergy in Northern Ontario.

摘要

With an apparent abundance of idled and under-utilized agricultural land in Northern Ontario, there is interest in the ability of short-rotation forests to supply bioenergy and other possible bioproducts. Once established, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) plantations can be harvested on (roughly) three-year cutting cycles until about age 22. Purpose-grown plantations such as these could be used as stand-alone sources of fibre or used in conjunction with sources such as natural forests or woody residues. Using a recently developed land cover model we found that approximately 405 500 ha of agricultural-type land exists across Northern Ontario. Numerous scenarios were developed to calculate SRC profitability on these areas. The analyses are intended to reflect a broad range of expectations on physical yields and prices, including management costs. Although SRC involves a considerable up-front investment, our simulations suggest a significant amount of land could have a break-even biomass price of $85/oven-dried tonnes (ODT) (+/-$5/ODT) at farm gate. This farm gate biomass price represents roughly current traditional biomass prices paid. Thus SRC would need to produce biomass at a comparable cost to be a competitive option. A number of technological and price changes could increase the attractiveness of SRC systems in Northern Ontario, including decreases in establishment and management costs (while maintaining yield expectations) and improved cultivars offering increased yields.