An overview of LEOPARDS: the Level of Protection Analysis System

摘要

The Level of Protection Analysis System (LEOPARDS) is a computer based decision analysis tool developed in Ontario (Canada) that allows the structured assessment of the outcomes and costs associated with alternative forest fire management policies,budgets, and suppression resource mixes. Its primary component is a deterministic, spatially conscious simulation model that emulates the daily fire suppression activities of a provincial fire management agency. Inputs for the model include historical fire weather and fire occurrence data, land-use objectives and operational rules, and infrastructure and suppression resource information. The model estimates physical outcomes (e.g. response time, number of escaped fires, area burned), fiscal results (e.g. fixed and variable costs), and resource utilization information. LEOPARDS has been used to address a number of strategic fire management issues in the province of Ontario and is being assessed for use in other parts of Canada.