IFA: Fertilizer Demand Continues to Recover, Aggressive Capacity Expansions Underway

摘要

Global fertilizer consumption is expected to grow by 4.7% in the 2010- 2011 growing season, driven by rising crop prices and the improving economy, according to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA; Paris). By 2011-2012, nutrient application rates are expected to fully recover to the levels seen prior to the economic crisis, IFA says. Following massive declines in 2009, fertilizer sales and consumption in 2010 grew 13% and 7%, respectively, IFA says. The report also warns that rising agricultural commodity and food prices could lead to wide- spread shortages. “Another food crisis could be looming,” says Patrick Heffer, director/IFA’s Agriculture Service. “The combination of the weath er, trade restrictions, bioenergy growth and low stocks takes us back to three years ago, when food prices spiraled. Based on the data we have analyzed, we are witnessing a situation very similar to what happened in the second half of 2007, with all agricultural prices going up. Today even cotton and sugar prices are high.” IFA estimates producers have invested $40 billion in new capacity for nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium in Africa, Asia, and the Americas since 2008. Between 2010 and 2015, 55 urea units, 20 potash expansion projects and 40 processed phosphates facilities are planned for completion worldwide. IFA estimates that a further$80 billion will be invested in new capacity between 2011 and 2015. Global urea capacity is projected to expand by 30% between 2009-2014. During the same period, world potash and phosphates capacity is forecastto grow by 25% and 31%, respectively, IFA says.