Probabilistic Hazard of Tsunamis Generated by Submarine Landslides in the Cook Strait Canyon (New Zealand)

摘要

Cook Strait Canyon is a submarine canyon that lies within ten kilometres of Wellington, the capital city of New Zealand. The canyon walls are covered with scars from previous landslides which could have caused local tsunamis. Palaeotsunami evidence also points to past tsunamis in the Wellington region. Furthermore, the canyon's location in Cook Strait means that there is inhabited land in the path of both forward- and backward-propagating waves. Tsunamis induced by these submarine landslides pose hazard to coastal communities and infrastructure but major events are very uncommon and the historical record is not extensive enough to quantify this hazard. The combination of infrequent but potentially very consequential events makes realistic assessment of the hazard challenging. However, information on both magnitude and frequency is very important for land use planning and civil defence purposes. We use a multidisciplinary approach bringing together geological information with modelling to construct a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of submarine landslide-generated tsunami. Although there are many simplifying assumptions used in this assessment, it suggests that the Cook Strait open coast is exposed to considerable hazard due to submarine landslide-generated tsunamis. We emphasise the uncertainties involved and present opportunities for future research.