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Analysis of Foreshock Sequences in California and Implications for Earthquake Triggering

机译:加利福尼亚前震序列的分析及其对地震触发的意义

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We analyze foreshock activity in California and compare observations with simulated catalogs based on a branching aftershock-triggering model. We first examine foreshock occurrence patterns for isolated earthquakes in southern California from 1981 to 2011 and in northern California from 1984 to 2009. Among the 64 mainshocks, excluding 3 swarms and 3 doubles, 53 % of the rest are preceded by at least one foreshock within 30 days and 5 km. Foreshock occurrence appears correlated with mainshock faulting type and depth. Foreshock area is correlated with the magnitude of the largest foreshock and the number of foreshocks, however, it is not correlated with mainshock magnitude. We then examine the occurrence pattern of all seismicity clusters without a minimum magnitude requirement, and the possibility that they are "foreshocks" of larger mainshocks. Only about 30 % of the small clusters lead to a larger cluster. About 66 % of the larger clusters have foreshock activities, and the spatial distribution pattern is similar to mainshocks, with lower occurrence rates in the Transverse Range and central California and higher occurrence rates in the Eastern California Shear Zone and the Bay Area. These results suggest that foreshock occurrence is largely controlled by the regional tectonic stress field and fault zone properties. In special cases, foreshock occurrence may be useful for short-term forecasting; however, foreshock properties are not reliably predictive of the magnitude of the eventual "mainshock". Comparison with simulated catalogs suggest that the "swarmy" features and foreshock occurrence rate in the observed catalogs are not well reproduced from common statistical models of earthquake triggering.
机译:我们分析了加州的前震活动,并根据分支余震触发模型将观测结果与模拟目录进行了比较。我们首先研究了1981年至2011年在加利福尼亚南部和1984年至2009年在加利福尼亚北部发生的孤立地震的前震发生模式。在这64个主震中,除了3个群和3个双倍地震外,其余53%的地震之前都存在至少一个前震30天5公里。前震的出现与主震断层的类型和深度有关。前震面积与最大前震的大小和前震的数量有关,但与主震的大小无关。然后,我们检查了没有最小震级要求的所有地震活动性丛集的发生模式,以及它们是较大主震的“前兆”的可能性。只有大约30%的小型集群导致较大的集群。大约66%的较大类群具有前震活动,其空间分布模式与主震相似,在横向范围和中部加利福尼亚州的发生率较低,而在东加利福尼亚剪切区和湾区的发生率较高。这些结果表明,前震的发生在很大程度上受区域构造应力场和断层带性质的控制。在特殊情况下,前震的发生可能有助于短期预测。但是,前震特性不能可靠地预测最终“主震”的大小。与模拟目录的比较表明,观测目录中的“群居”特征和前震发生率不能从地震触发的常用统计模型中很好地再现。

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