Calculations of asteroid impacts into deep and shallow water

摘要

Contrary to received opinion, ocean impacts of small (<500 m) asteroids do not produce tsunamis that lead to world-wide devastation. In fact the most dangerous features of ocean impacts, just as for land impacts, are the atmospheric effects. We present illustrative hydrodynamic calculations of impacts into both deep and shallow seas, and draw conclusions from a parameter study in which the size of the impactor and the depth of the sea are varied independently. For vertical impacts at 20 km/s, craters in the seafloor are produced when the water depth is less than about 5-7 times the asteroid diameter. Both the depth and the diameter of the transient crater scale with the asteroid diameter, so the volume of water excavated scales with the asteroid volume. About a third of the crater volume is vaporised, because the kinetic energy per unit mass of the asteroid is much larger than the latent heat of vaporization of water. The vaporised water carries away a considerable fraction of the impact energy in an explosively expanding blast wave which is responsible for devastating local effects and may affect worldwide climate. Of the remaining energy, a substantial portion is used in the crown splash and the rebound jet that forms as the transient crater collapses. The collapse and rebound cycle leads to a propagating wave with a wavelength considerably shorter than classical tsunamis, being only about twice the diameter of the transient crater. Propagation of this wave is hindered somewhat because its amplitude is so large that it breaks in deep water and is strongly affected by the blast wave's perturbation of the atmosphere. Even if propagation were perfect, however, the volume of water delivered per metre of shoreline is less than was delivered by the Boxing Day 2004 tsunami for any impactor smaller than 500 m diameter in an ocean of 5 km depth or less. Near-field effects are dangerous for impactors of diameter 200 m or greater; hurricaneforce winds can extend tens of kilometers from the impact point, and fallout from the initial splash can be extremely violent. There is some indication that near-field effects are more severe if the impact occurs in shallow water.