The weight of evidence suggests ever more clearly that the economy has slipped into at least a mild recession.Global Insight expects GDP declines of 0.5% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second.The second quarter would be worse still(down 0.9%)but for the initial help from the fiscal-stimulus package.The government says that rebate checks will begin to arrive in May,and we have adopted that assumption this month(in the February forecast we assumed no rebates until July).
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