The cyclical behavior of equity turnover

摘要

We measure the extent to which the cyclical behavior of the turnover of equity shares generated by individual investors on the New York Stock Exchange can be accounted for by a single source of trade embedded in a neoclassical growth economy with dynamically complete markets. The source of trade is heterogeneity in agents' financial wealth. In the post-war United States, turnover has been more than seven times as volatile as output and has exhibited asynchronous cyclical characteristics: lagged turnover has co-varied positively with output and led turnover negatively. The baseline model, calibrated to match the mean behavior of asset returns and the distribution of wealth across households, accounts for 29% of the level of turnover observed in the data and 22% of the volatility. The asynchronous relationship observed between turnover and output is puzzling.