Steep demand declines in North America and Western Europe, as well as a slowdown in growth from Asia and the introduction of new machines in developing markets, will necessitate the removal of 3.5 million to 4.4 million tonnes of newsprint capacity around the world over the next several years, according to RISI's just-released Global Newsprint Risk of Closure study. Newsprint demand in developed regions like North America and Western Europe has been in a state of permanent retreat for years, leaving producers scrambling to ship tonnage to the still expanding export markets that kept world newsprint demand growth positive in 2010. However, this growth stalled last year as newsprint demand in some of the important Asian markets shrank and world newsprint demand fell 3.7%, creating even more stress for the already oversupplied global newsprint market. Although some of the 2011 decline in Asia was due to fluctuations in currency, inventories and government regulations that we expect to abate and allow a return to growth in 2012, the day when competition from the Internet and digital media causes newsprint demand in developing regions to join the downward spiral of North America, Western Europe and Japan is fast approaching.
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