Potato Markets Weekly

摘要

Continuing very hot and dry weather across Europe is prompting concern over this year's crop. April 2008 contract prices on the RMX Hanover futures market have today fallen back from yesterday's peaks but the open position is rising rapidly. Trading should remain brisk because the forecast at least for the next week is for more sunny and dry weather, with temperatures well above-average for the month. Old crop prices remain steady in the central EU-5 countries but are now rising sharply in Spain, while Belgian stocks are said to be at a record low. French growers have been doing particularly well this season, heading the EU-5 league table of prices, but Agreste (the French Ministry of Agriculture's statistical arm) is unaccountably expecting a wareplantings increase of only 0.8% this year. The interprofessional organisation CNIPT is expecting the French early potato area to stabilise this year after several years of declines. We are forecasting a 3.5% increase in this year's GB census area of potatoes and the harvest could be 8% larger than last year, at just under six million tonnes. In this event the free-buy ex farm average price should more than halve over the coming storage season, to around ￡80/tonne. Old crop futures prices are drifting downwards at Hanover, and there was a sharp correction today in the premium being offered by the May contract. Serbia has been suffering from the loss of its potato exports to Romania, now that country has joined the EU, and it is hoping to negotiate withthe European Union for a resumption of this trade. Mexico has lifted its ban on the import of potatoes from the US state of Idaho. The turnover achieved by the UK's largest multiple retailer now exceeds CAP spending for the 27 EU countries, suggesting that underlying food industry trends have a far greater impact on agriculture than the CAP. In this issue we report on Spanish potato imports to December and French household consumption in March.