Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries

摘要

A large body of research and knowledge has been accumulated concerning fertility trends and levels, and their causes, in contemporary low-fertility countries. This literature for the most part is based on cross-sectional data. Our research is intended to complement this wealth of knowledge by adding another dimension, namely by exploring in detail cohort fertility behavior in some 27 low-fertility populations of Europe, North America, Oceania, and East Asia. We use the approach developed by Ryder (see, for example, 1951 and 1986), which in turn was based on the work of nineteenth-century German demographers, of whom the best known is Lexis (1875). That such an approach is useful is evident: the present state of knowledge about cohort fertility levels and trends is rudimentary (Council of Europe 1999; Sardon 1990, 2000). Demeny (1997: 97), for instance, writes that in numerous countries of northern and western Europe total fertility rates "have remained below replacement level for periods rangingbetween twenty-one and twenty-seven years. These are durations too long plausibly to permit the eventual fertility of the component cohorts to reach replacement levels."