Contradictions in Nigeria's Fertility Transition: The Burdens and Benefits of Having People

摘要

ASSESSMENTS OF GLOBAL fertility trends indicate that the pace of transition to lower fertility in developing countries has been faster than predicted in some of the more pessimistic scenarios presented in previous decades (Casterline 2001; UN Population Division 2003). According to current data, sub-Sa-haran Africa remains the region with the highest levels of fertility, but even there the pace of decline appears to be faster than many analysts had predicted. Fairly substantial changes in countries like Kenya and Zimbabwe suggest that high-fertility regimes in sub-Saharan Africa may be relegated to history in the not too distant future (Kirk and Pillet 1998). But whether African fertility will decline as quickly from moderate to low levels as it hasfrom very high to moderate levels remains uncertain. In Nigeria, the pace of fertility decline has been relatively slow, especially given the country's considerable economic resources and human capital (National Population Commission 2000; Renne 2003).Nigerians in their reproductive years are making fertility decisions that will determine the country's demographic momentum for the next few decades. While analyses of census data and large-scale surveys provide information about trends and permit inferences about the kinds of variables that affect people's fertility behavior, they tell us little about the experiences of people who are having children in the midst of Africa's apparent fertility transition. This article presents an ethnographic account and an anthropological analysis of the contradictory pressures that Nigerians face as they decide how many children to have.