China's development of coal-to-olefins technology likely to change dynamics

摘要

IF China's development of coal-to-olefins (CTO) technology continues as planned across the next five years, the global polyethylene (PE) market is likely to be saturated with material through 2019, as per a report by Platts. Over three dozen coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins projects are likely to come on stream in China by 2020. Those new plants are expected to add more than 10 mln metric tons of ethylene to the Chinese market. The Platts Shale to Polyethylene Report showed that the amount of ethylene produced from coal-to-olefins in China is expected to match the amount of ethylene produced from new steam cracker projects tied to shale gas developments in North America. Report data showed that not only is China adding ethylene production capacity, it is adding more than 14 mln metric tons of additional polyethylene capacity between 2014 and 2021, much of which is being fed by the coal-to-olefins-produced ethylene. The Report, in its look at new ethylene and polyethylene production developments worldwide, made clear that new Asian capacity - most of which is in China - will hit the global markets ahead of the new production planned for North America. The largest capacity gains in the Americas are projected to occur in 2017 and 2020, when new shale-based production comes on-stream.